Preamble

Analysis of the psychological effects of Covid-19 in Europe during the first weeks of the pandemic. Survey based on this project conducted by researchers around the world. Trying to map out all the factors, that might affects people’s psychological wellbeing and their ability to make good decisions during the COVID-19 (or “Coronavirus”) outbreak all over the world. Researchers form many countries are collaborating on this project, to help scientists and decision makers to help and communicate.

Why this project

The project was chosen as it deals with analyzing all those factors that in this emergency situation can have serious consequences in people’s lives, as the isolation, the economic situation and the stress due to the stringent measures to stop the pandemic are part of the side effects of covid-19. The survey on which the next analyzes are based was designed by social scientists and psychologists from more than 50 different universities. The study in question presents more than 150,000 individual respondents from more than 50 different countries. The following analyzes describe a series of variables selected within the survey, taking as a sample the responses provided by respondents located in Europe who answered the survey between March 30, 2020 and May 30, 2020.

For more info check this Nature article.

Main analysis

As said in the ‘Preamble’ this project is focuses on the responses provided by respondents located in Europe’s countries.

#filtering by EU Countries
target <- c("Austria","Belgium","Bulgaria","Croatia","Cyprus","Czech Republic",
            "Denmark","Estonia","Finland","France","Germany","Greece","Hungary",
            "Ireland","Italy","Latvia","Lithuania","Luxembourg","Malta",
            "Netherlands","Poland","Portugal","Romania","Slovakia","Slovenia",
            "Spain","Sweden")

EU <- filter(cleaned_d, Country %in% target) 

#fixing date visualization
EU$RecordedDate <- as.Date(EU$RecordedDate , format= "%Y-%m-%d")

Characteristics of the Respondents

Age of the Respondents

Age of the Respondents

We can see that most respondents are aged between 20 and 40.

Gender of the Respondents

The majority of the answers come from women.

Employment of the Respondents

Full time employed lead the survey.

Stress level in Europe

An important point of the project is based on the analysis of perceived individual stress, obtained through the PSS Scale, based on the answers to 10 questions, invented by psychologists Cohen, Karmak, and Mermelstrein (1983), using indicators of stress responses, for instance, perceived lack of control over events, pressure from mounting difficulties and feeling upset about unexpected changes. Scores are considered moderate above 2.4, and high above 3.7. More infos about PSS Scale here

PSS scores are obtained by reversing responses (e.g., 0 = 4, 1 = 3, 2 = 2, 3 = 1 & 4 = 0) to the four positively stated items (items 4, 5, 7, & 8) and then summing across all scale items. A short 4 item scale can be made from questions 2, 4, 5 and 10 of the PSS 10 item scale.

#note that the na values are omitted
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4 == 1] <- 5
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4 == 2] <- 4
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4 == 4] <- 2
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4 == 5] <- 1
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5 == 1] <- 5
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5 == 2] <- 4
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5 == 4] <- 2
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5 == 5] <- 1
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7 == 1] <- 5
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7 == 2] <- 4
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7 == 4] <- 2
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7 == 5] <- 1
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8 == 1] <- 5
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8 == 2] <- 4
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8 == 4] <- 2
EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8[EU$Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8 == 5] <- 1

eu_stress <- select(EU,Country, Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1:Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10) %>%
  ddply( .(Country), summarize,
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA1=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA2=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_2,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA3=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_3,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA4=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA5=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA6=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_6,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA7=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA8=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA9=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_9,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA10=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  mutate(total_stress = rowMeans(select(., -Country)))
Levels of stress by Country

Levels of stress by Country

Levels of stress were moderate or lower in many countries. Poland and Portugal reported the highest levels of stress in Europe,and Denmark and the Netherlands the lowest.

Are men or women more stressed?

eu_stress_gender <- select(filter(EU,Dem_gender=="Male" | Dem_gender=="Female"), Dem_gender,
                           Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1:Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10) %>%
  ddply( .(Dem_gender), summarize,
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA1=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA2=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_2,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA3=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_3,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA4=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA5=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA6=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_6,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA7=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA8=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA9=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_9,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA10=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  mutate(total_stress = rowMeans(select(., -Dem_gender)))
Levels of stress by Gender

Levels of stress by Gender

In fact we can see that women results more stressed then men, as said in this Psychological article, many women also have to think about the housework and the children.

Which is the most stressed employment?

eu_stress_empl <- select(EU, Dem_employment,Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1:Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10) %>%
  ddply( .(Dem_employment), summarize,
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA1=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA2=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_2,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA3=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_3,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA4=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA5=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA6=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_6,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA7=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA8=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA9=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_9,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA10=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  mutate(total_stress = rowMeans(select(., -Dem_employment)))
Stress level by employment

Stress level by employment

Student is the most stressed category, as expected due to isolation and social distancing; Poland is the most stressed Nation and in fact in this article we can see that University Students recorded an highly level of stress during the Covid-19 pandemic

How stress level changed in Europe during the first weeks of Covid pandemic?

eu_stress_2months <- select(filter(EU,RecordedDate=="2020-03-30"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-04-06"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-04-12"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-04-18"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-04-24"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-04-30"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-05-05"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-05-11"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-05-17"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-05-23"|
                                     RecordedDate=="2020-05-30"), 
                            RecordedDate,Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1:Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10) %>%
  ddply( .(RecordedDate), summarize,
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA1=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_1,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA2=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_2,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA3=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_3,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA4=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_4,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA5=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_5,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA6=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_6,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA7=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_7,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA8=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_8,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA9=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_9,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_PSS10_UCLA10=mean(Scale_PSS10_UCLA_10,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  mutate(total_stress = rowMeans(select(., -RecordedDate)))

Making a predictive model of stress during the first weeks of the pandemic.

mod = lm( total_stress ~RecordedDate, data = eu_stress_2months)
summary(mod)

Call:
lm(formula = total_stress ~ RecordedDate, data = eu_stress_2months)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-0.14309 -0.06912  0.01819  0.05712  0.18498 

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept)  -1.416e+01  3.083e+01  -0.459    0.657
RecordedDate  9.017e-04  1.677e-03   0.538    0.604

Residual standard error: 0.1048 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.03112,   Adjusted R-squared:  -0.07653 
F-statistic: 0.2891 on 1 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.6038
mod$coefficients
  (Intercept)  RecordedDate 
-1.415720e+01  9.016732e-04 
Levels of stress during the first weeks of the pandemic

Levels of stress during the first weeks of the pandemic

The stress level in the first two weeks was higher than the model predicted, in the third week it decreased a bit and then increased and repeated the cycle until the end of May. Unexpectedly in the end of the May the stress level increased again, it is weird because typically with the start of summer people should be less stressed; unfortunately we don’t have any data that will confirm this trend.

Map of stress

Visualizing a detailed map of stress level in Europe

Levels of stress during the first weeks of the pandemic, based on PSS Scale

Levels of stress during the first weeks of the pandemic, based on PSS Scale

Sources of Distress

Now the analysis will focus on the cause of the stress of the respondents, asking them questions regarding various factors that represent a source of stress.

eu_stress_source <- select(EU, Expl_Distress_1:Expl_Distress_24)%>%
                    na.omit()

eu_stress_source = data.frame(apply(eu_stress_source,2,function(x)mean(x[x<99]))) %>%
  tibble::rownames_to_column(var = "col1") %>%
  `colnames<-`(c("stress_source", "mean")) 
 
listlab<-(c("No religious activities", "Not knowing how to stop covid-19",
            "Feeling ashamed for acting differently","Adapt work to Digital Platforms",
            "Access to necessities(food etc..)","Behavior of adults I live with",
            "Behavior of childrens I live with","Adapt to social life on digital platforms",
            "No trovels outside my Country","Loneliness","Time i spend in proximity to others",
            "Children's education","Civil services(Police,sanitations..)","Income",
            "Not knowing about developments with Covid-19","Time I spend inside","Work",
            "Job prospect","No social activities","Worry over friends and relatives who live far away",
            "Not knowing how long the measures will last","Risk of catching covid-19",
            "Risk of being hospedalized or dying","National economy"))
Sources of Distress among Europeans during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sources of Distress among Europeans during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The results indicate that most respondents are concerned about the state of the national economy. Economic considerations were followed closely by health-related risks, such as the risks of being hospitalised and of contracting the new disease.

Trust in institutions

Partecipants were asked how much they trusted six key institutions in relation to the Covid-19 emergency (on ascale from 1 = not at all to 10 = completely), in particular partecipants were asked about their trust towards World Health Organization(WHO), the national governments’ efforts to tackle the COVID19, the Police, the civil service, the national government and the healt care systems.

Here OECD guidelines on measuring institutions trust.

eu_trust <- select(EU, OECD_insititutions_1:OECD_insititutions_6)%>%
  na.omit()

eu_trust = data.frame(apply(eu_trust,2,function(x)mean(x))) %>%
  tibble::rownames_to_column(var = "col1") %>%
  `colnames<-`(c("trust", "mean")) 
lablist<-(c("Country's Governments","Country's civil Service","Country's Police",
            "Governments effort against covid-19","WHO","Country's Healthcare system"))
Trust in Institutions

Trust in Institutions

Europeans reported only medium level of trust at all, with the highest levels of trust for their countries’ healthcare system and the WHO. Notably, Countries governments reported the lowest level of trust.

How much citizens trust their own governments?

eu_mean_oecd1 <- select(EU,Country,OECD_insititutions_1) %>%
  ddply( .(Country), summarize,
         Rate_OECD_insititutions_1=mean(OECD_insititutions_1,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
        arrange(desc( Rate_OECD_insititutions_1))
Trust towards governments

Trust towards governments

Noably, we see that Poland is the most stressed Nation but also one of the Country in which the population trust least in their own government Finland, on the other hand, is the nation with the least stress related to Covid, and it is also one of the Nations in which the population trust most in their own government.

## How much citizens trust the government’s effort to handle the pandemic?

eu_mean_oecd4 <- select(EU,Country,OECD_insititutions_4) %>%
  ddply( .(Country), summarize,
         Rate_OECD_insititutions_4=mean(OECD_insititutions_4,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  arrange(desc( Rate_OECD_insititutions_4))
Trust towards government’s effort to handle Coronavirus

Trust towards government’s effort to handle Coronavirus

Similar patterns as the trust level in the governments, with Bulgaria that reported the lowest level of trust for the national effort to handle the pandemic.

Trust in Countries’ Measure

It was also asked participants to judge the appropriateness of the countries’ measures in response to the COVID-19 on a scale from 0 (too little), to 5 (appropriate, the black dashed line in the graph), to 10 (too much).

eu_trustinc <- select(EU,Country,Trust_countrymeasure) %>%
  group_by(Country) %>%
  dplyr::summarize(Mean = mean(Trust_countrymeasure, na.rm=TRUE))
Appropriateness of the countries’ measures

Appropriateness of the countries’ measures

Slovakia and Slovenia were those countries where citizens considered the measures stronger than necessary; in the plot, the vertical mid-line indicates that the measures are appropriate. France and Hungary citizens judged their governments’response less than appropriate.

There is correlation between confidence in the measures taken by governments to tackle covid and the actions that the population has taken to reduce transmission?

eu_conf_corr <- select(EU,Country,OECD_insititutions_6,Compliance_1:Compliance_6) %>%
                ddply( .(Country), summarize,
         Rate_OECD=mean(OECD_insititutions_6,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_Compliance_1=mean(Compliance_1,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_Compliance_2=mean(Compliance_2,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_Compliance_3=mean(Compliance_3,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_Compliance_4=mean(Compliance_4,na.rm=TRUE),
         Rate_Compliance_5=mean(Compliance_5,na.rm=TRUE))%>%
  mutate(total_Compl = rowMeans(select(., -Country,-Rate_OECD)))
mod = lm( total_Compl ~Rate_OECD, data = eu_conf_corr)
summary(mod)

Call:
lm(formula = total_Compl ~ Rate_OECD, data = eu_conf_corr)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-0.27076 -0.09898  0.03277  0.09216  0.26395 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)  4.20673    0.15954  26.367   <2e-16 ***
Rate_OECD    0.03408    0.02464   1.383    0.179    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 0.1386 on 25 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.07106,   Adjusted R-squared:  0.0339 
F-statistic: 1.912 on 1 and 25 DF,  p-value: 0.1789
mod$coefficients
(Intercept)   Rate_OECD 
 4.20672802  0.03407768 
Trust towards the governments’handling of the pandemic

Trust towards the governments’handling of the pandemic

From what emerges Poland not having confidence in the measures taken by governments does not even try to reduce transmission, while Denmark is in the opposite situation. In countries with higher trust towards governments ’efforts, citizens were also more likely to report higher levels of compliance with directives aimed at controlling the spread of the virus. Notably, Portugal reported higher levels of compliance than the model would predict based on the acceptance of government efforts. An outlier in the other direction, Latvia reported lower levels of compliance than those the model predicted, given levels of trust.

Will be government’s effort to handle Coronavirus more trusted over the time?

eu_trust2m <- select(filter(EU,RecordedDate=="2020-03-30"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-04-06"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-04-12"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-04-18"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-04-24"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-04-30"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-05-05"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-05-11"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-05-17"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-05-23"|
                       RecordedDate=="2020-05-30"),RecordedDate,OECD_insititutions_6) %>%
  ddply( .(RecordedDate), summarize,
         Rate_OECD=mean(OECD_insititutions_6,na.rm=TRUE))
Trust towards the governments’handling of the pandemic over the first weeks

Trust towards the governments’handling of the pandemic over the first weeks

In the first month the trust for government’s effort to handle Coronavirus appears to increase, due to more stringent measures. But with beginning of the summer season Trust level seems to be decreasing, probably because in many countries, including ours, Italy, the measures were almost null.

Conclusions